A política macroeconômica brasileira no período de 2003 a 2015 como determinante do risco soberano

Abstract

The study proposes to analyze macroeconomic policy throughout 2003 to 2015, and its implications for the classification of sovereign risk. It can be seen that the conduct of macroeconomic measures, as reflected in the economic indicators, has influenced the determination of the sovereign rating, as the rating agencies evaluate the performance of the economic variables to carry out the granting of notes. Based on this, the analysis discussed the macroeconomic policy adopted in the two terms of the Lula’s government and the Dilma’s government, and its results. In order to certify the influence of economic variables on the sovereign classification, the annual results of inflation, per capita income and, lastly, the history of default is exposed. It should be noted that the choice of these variables was due to the study by Cantor and Packer (1996), that points out the good performance of these factors is responsible for the assignment of high grades. Moreover, the study emphasizes the effects of the loss of the degree of investment under the domestic context of the country.