Balança comercial brasileira: modelo VAR e análise do impacto cambial (1995-2016)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the relationships between the trade balance and the variables that explain it, supported by the theoretical framework, which are the domestic income, world income and the real exchange rate, for the Brazilian case, between 1995 and 2016. A VAR model is employed for the proposed purpose and investigates the existence of the J effect and the validity of the Marshall-Lerner condition through the impulse-response function made possible by the methodology used, which allows to observe the effect on the short term. The results show little significance of the lagged variables on the trade balance, they do not support the initial drop in the trade balance pointed out by the Curve J hypothesis, although the positive effect of the exchange rate on the trade balance is supported by the impulse response function, validating the Marshall-Lerner condition for the case studied.