Os desafios logísticos da zona franca de Manaus e sua vulnerabilidade comercial: uma avaliação de riscos frente ao comércio internacional

Abstract

This study analyzes the competitiveness of the Manaus Free Trade Zone (ZFM) within the contemporary international trade landscape, shifting the focus from external tariff barriers to internal logistical and structural bottlenecks that limit the region's global integration. Although protectionist policies in key markets—such as potential U.S. tariffs—pose commercial challenges, this research demonstrates that the vulnerability of transport infrastructure in the Amazon acts as a more severe non-tariff barrier, compromising the regularity and cost-efficiency of foreign trade operations. Grounded in regional development theory and recent data on Amazonian logistics, the research examines how extreme climate events, exemplified by the historical drought of 2023, exposed the fragility of the current model. Results indicate that excessive reliance on waterway transport, combined with precarious road infrastructure—where approximately 90% of paved roads present structural problems—generated billions in losses and supply chain disruptions, forcing a contraction in the import of essential inputs for the Industrial Pole of Manaus. The analysis concludes that to sustain its position in international trade, the ZFM must urgently transcend the debate on tax incentives and focus on operational efficiency, requiring advanced multimodal integration to ensure resilience against climate instability and reduce the "Amazon Cost."